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Department
Department of Strategic Monitoring
Germany Dramatically Expands Military Spending: Berlin Prepares for a New Era of European Security
23 May 2026
One of the most widely discussed developments surrounding Germany is the statement by German Foreign Minister Johann Wadephul that the country’s defense spending will exceed 4% of GDP in 2026, with Berlin aiming to event...
F-35 Incident Over Iran: Emergency Landing, Strike Theories and the Hidden Implications for Air Power
20 March 2026
An incident involving a U.S. fifth-generation F-35 fighter following a combat mission near Iran has rapidly become one of the most closely watched and debated episodes of the current Middle East escalation. After complet...
March 14: Israel Hit by Series of Rocket Alerts and UAV Infiltration Warnings
14 March 2026
During the night of March 14 and into the morning hours, multiple regions across Israel experienced a prolonged wave of air-raid sirens triggered by rocket launches and warnings about possible hostile unmanned aerial veh...
Risk of a Frozen Conflict: A Post-War Scenario for Iran
14 March 2026
The war against Iran, which began on February 28, is likely to end with each side declaring some form of military success. Yet battlefield gains alone are unlikely to translate into immediate political transformation. Ev...
France and Italy seek dialogue with Iran to secure shipping route through Hormuz
13 March 2026
Several European governments, with France among them, have begun quiet contacts with Tehran aimed at ensuring that their commercial vessels can safely transit the Strait of Hormuz, according to officials familiar with th...
The February 2026 Afghan–Pakistani Escalation: From Border Crisis to Limited Interstate War
27 February 2026
In late February 2026, tensions between Afghanistan and Pakistan entered a qualitatively new phase. Within forty-eight hours, what had long been a pattern of cross-border skirmishes and reciprocal accusations along the D...
The Great U.S. Middle East "Assembly" According to Open-Source Data
19 February 2026
The Great U.S. Middle East "Assembly" According to Open-Source Data: What OSINT Is Capturing and Why the Current Buildup Looks Like Preparation for a Long-Term Scenario Around Iran and the Red SeaToday’s OSINT agenda is ...
Russia–Ethiopia Military-Technical Cooperation in 2024–2026
19 February 2026
Russia–Ethiopia Military-Technical Cooperation in 2024–2026: Open-Source Intelligence Assessment of Armored Vehicle Transfers, Advanced Trainer Aircraft, MALE UAV Systems, Logistical Pathways, Strategic Drivers, and Regi...
Cyprus Defence Ministry Responds to Reports of Turkish Air-Defence Expansion in the North
31 January 2026
The Cypriot defence ministry on Friday rejected claims that an alleged expansion of Turkish air-defence systems in the north of the island inherently undermines the operational value of the Republic’s newly acquired H145...
Germany on the Road to Strategic Autonomy: A National Satellite Missile Detection System and the Future of European Security
29 January 2026
Germany is moving toward the creation of its own space-based missile early-warning system — a project that could fundamentally reshape Europe’s security architecture. This is not a marginal technological upgrade, but a s...
The United States and Iran in January 2026
29 January 2026
The United States and Iran in January 2026: Crisis Architecture, Escalation Dynamics, and the Diplomatic DeadlockA Systemic Crisis Instead of a Situational ConfrontationThe end of January 2026 finds relations between Was...
The clash between Donald Trump and Mark Carney that began in Davos — and what it could mean for the US and Canadian economies
24 January 2026
What initially looked like a routine exchange of statements on the sidelines of the Davos forum has rapidly evolved into one of the most revealing trade-political confrontations of recent months. The dispute between Dona...
Investigation into China’s Top Generals: What the Purge of PLA Leadership Means and How It Reshapes Power in Beijing
24 January 2026
On January 24, 2026, China’s political and military system entered a phase that until recently was considered highly unlikely even among seasoned observers. The Ministry of National Defense of the People’s Republic of Ch...
Venezuela Between Oil and External Control. Economic Stabilization as a Tool of US Geopolitics
23 January 2026
The period from January 10 to January 23, 2026 marked a sharp shift for Venezuela from overt pressure to a phase dominated by economics, oil, and diplomacy. While the military phase of the US operation formally ended ear...
India on High Alert Ahead of Republic Day
21 January 2026
Indian authorities have placed the country on heightened security alert, with a particular focus on New Delhi, following intelligence inputs indicating potential threats ahead of Republic Day on January 26.The decision t...
China and the Global Expansion of the Belt and Road
21 January 2026
China and the Global Expansion of the Belt and Road: Infrastructure as GeopoliticsIn 2025, China sharply increased its activity under the Belt and Road Initiative, turning it into one of the central instruments of its fo...
U.S. strikes ISIL targets in northwestern Nigeria
26 December 2025
U.S. strikes ISIL targets in northwestern Nigeria. What is officially confirmed and what remains unknownThe United States carried out strikes against ISIL targets in Nigeria on December 25, 2025. The episode drew particu...
Falcon 50 Crash in Turkey
23 December 2025
Falcon 50 Crash in Turkey: Libyan Chief of Staff Was on BoardOn the evening of December 23, 2025, a Dassault Falcon 50 business jet crashed in Turkey after departing from Ankara. The crash has been confirmed by video foo...
Aleppo: Clashes in Sheikh Maqsoud and Ashrafiyah
23 December 2025
Aleppo, December 22 Clashes in Sheikh Maqsoud and Ashrafiyah, civilian casualties, a ceasefire, and the wider debate over the future of the SDFOn Monday, December 22, 2025, security conditions in Aleppo sharply deteriora...
Tests in the Bay of Bengal
22 December 2025
Tests in the Bay of Bengal: Indian NOTAMs, the Maritime Leg of Deterrence, and Strategic Intelligence Competition with ChinaА signal, not merely a noticeThe series of NOTAMs issued by India over the Bay of Bengal for the...
The $11 Billion Taiwan Package
21 December 2025
The $11 Billion Taiwan Package: Technological Leaps, Operational Risks, and the Architecture of New DeterrenceThe events of December 2025 regarding the U.S. Congressional notification of a massive arms sale to Taiwan rep...
China Leads Nearly 90% of Key Technologies
17 December 2025
China is leading global scientific research across the overwhelming majority of critical and emerging technological domains, according to the latest update of the Australian Strategic Policy Institute’s (ASPI) Critical T...